The Ishiba-Trump Era

On Friday, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and President Donald Trump sat down for the first time to discuss the U.S.-Japan alliance. Ishiba was the second foreign leader to come to Washington, D.C. to meet the president. The press conference suggested a good rapport between the prime minister and the president, but while allied reassurances were generously proffered, the partnership has new priorities.

Angst about this first meeting between Japan’s prime minister and President Trump was widespread. Former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo had developed close ties with the president during his first administration, but Abe’s assassination in 2022 left the Japanese wondering if Ishiba could build equally close personal ties. Abe’s widow, Akie, helped bridge the gap when she visited Mar-A-Lago on December 15, 2024, and dined with the Trumps. Like Abe, Ishiba came bearing a gold gift for the U.S. president. Whereas Abe presented Trump with a golf club, Ishiba brought a golden samurai helmet made in his Tottori district.

Ishiba’s cabinet members also helped by reaching out to Trump’s incoming cabinet members. Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi attended the inauguration and, on the sidelines, joined leaders of Australia and India for a meeting of QUAD foreign ministers joined by newly confirmed Secretary of State Marco Rubio. On January 30, Defense Minister Nakatani Gen spoke on the telephone with Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, and a bilateral 2+2 meeting is already in the works for the spring.

The joint statement issued by the White House and Prime Minister’s office was designed to assuage anxieties. The U.S. and Japan will continue to work closely on their strategic agenda. Japan received a repeated commitment from the U.S. to apply Article V protections to the Senkaku Islands, where Chinese maritime forces have challenged Tokyo’s administrative control since 2012. Japan promised to continue to invest in its own military capabilities.

There was also some different language on tensions across the Taiwan Strait.  

The two leaders emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity for the international community. They encouraged the peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues and opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion.

This brings the U.S. and Japan a step closer to a unified plan of action in the event of a crisis between Beijing and Taipei.

The joint statement outlined the U.S.-Japan economic agenda. It emphasized business ties, with a commitment to “significantly increase bilateral investment and employment.”  Japan and the U.S. will work together on critical technologies and a “free and fair” economic order in the Indo-Pacific. Notable, too, was working together to counter economic coercion.

Energy security is an elevated priority. Japan’s desire to increase its liquified natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States dovetailed nicely with the Trump Administration's priority on exploiting U.S. oil and gas reserves. In the first Trump Administration, U.S. exports of LNG to Japan began to expand, with the U.S. climbing from tenth place in 2018 to fourth place in 2023 as a source of Japan’s supply. Given the sanctions placed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, this will be an even more important diversification option for Japan.

After their meeting, Ishiba and Trump suggested even more about their new priorities. Their new relationship was emphasized from the start. The president made it clear he liked Japan’s new prime minister, even though he missed his friend Abe Shinzo. Trump even presented Ishiba with a picture of them together, which he autographed: “Mr. P.M., You will be a great people’s Prime Minister! Best wishes.”

But he did not hesitate to reference the Japanese trade surplus with the U.S. “We have a trade deficit with Japan of over $100 billion, but we’re going to work that out, and I think very quickly. Frankly, we can do it just on oil and gas, we can work it out, so we intend to do it very quickly,” he said. Trump also spoke enthusiastically about building a gas pipeline from Alaska.

The president’s goal is to attract one trillion dollars in Japanese foreign direct investment to the United States. It was unclear whether Ishiba agreed. The Nippon Steel acquisition deal with U.S. Steel was also raised. Trump said he would welcome the Japanese steel makers’ investment in U.S. Steel rather than its purchase. David Burritt, the CEO of U.S. Steel, had visited the Oval Office the day before to consider how to keep the Japanese steelmaker interested in his company.

Without a doubt, trade and allied burden-sharing will be focal points for the U.S.-Japan alliance. Japanese businesses worry about the spillover effects of Trump 2.0 tariffs, whether on North American neighbors who shape the supply chain for Japan’s automakers or on added tariffs on the Chinese economy that Japan relies heavily upon for its own economic growth. Just days after Ishiba left town, Trump announced a restoration of tariffs on steel and aluminum, including those from Japan. Similar tariffs on these products imposed in 2018 had sufficient impact to prompt Nippon Steel to find a foothold to produce its steel in the U.S. market. Japan may not be threatened with the president’s tariffs as Canada and Mexico have, but even with friendly ties between the two leaders, Japanese exporters to the U.S. will not be immune to the Trump Administration’s efforts to amend American trade policy.

U.S.-Japan allied burden-sharing talks also loom on the horizon. The five-year Host Nation Support agreement between the U.S. and Japan is due to expire in 2027, so Tokyo and Washington will be renegotiating the amount Japan pays for hosting U.S. forces on its territory. New Trump Administration defense officials have also suggested that Japan’s new target of 2 percent of GDP spending on defense is insufficient, and instead, Tokyo should aim for 3 percent.

Ishiba returned home to widespread praise. The upbeat mood of the meeting with Donald Trump was a great relief. Worries about the future of the alliance have receded for the moment. Trump clearly has a more positive view of the Japanese people and the partnership with Japan than he did when he came into office his first term. This may be one of Abe Shinzo’s greatest legacies, and it is one that Ishiba Shigeru can benefit from.